Tuesday, December 30, 2014

New Years Eve 2014 - Trade Plan and Levels.

Hope you all had a good holiday and a happy new year to you all.

I did say no levels from me until Friday but here we go....

We will be using 72.5-74.5 as the bull bear zone. If ES an hold above this we should head back to the 85.5-87.5 area. This zone is not by any means an automatic buy due to the bullish nature of ES up here so we would need a good setup. If ES breaks above here and into new ATH's then i would expect us to reach the 96.25-98.25 zone which could be a good spot to short.

If ES break below the bull bear zone we have support at 63-65 which could be a good area to get long as buyers must defend here to avoid a liquidation to the 49-51 area. Which is an automatic buy for me on the day time frame.

Happy New Year!!

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Monday 22nd December Trade Plan and Levels.

Happy Holiday Week!

Im sure some will be having the whole week off but here are today's levels and trade plan.

We will be using 66.25-68.25 as todays Bull Bear zone. If buyers can hold above here were should be able to test the upper resistance zones that are 82.25-84.25 and 96.25-68.25. Both of whcich could provide good rotation. 

If sellers take ES below the Bull Bear an below Fridays Value at 63.75 then we could see the support zones at 49-51 and 41.5-43.5 both of which i would expect to see buyers on first test. If ES can push below this then i would expect us to cap selling at 32.5-34.5 on the day time frame. 

Happy trading!

Friday, December 19, 2014

Friday 19th December Levels and Trade Plan

After ES ramped yesterday here are today levels....

We will be using 66.75-68.75 as the bull bear to determine short term bias.

Below this we have support zones @ 60.25-62.25 which could provide good long opportunity, however we would need a good setup as this has already been tested in globex.
Next we have 49-51 and 32.5-34.50 which i would expect to see buyers on first test of both of these.

Above the bull bear zone really we have 73-75 which is a good place to exit longs, we would need a great setup here to short as we have tested this already in globex and at these levels we are extremely bullish. Next up we have 84.50-86.50 and 99-01. These areas can be good spots to short with a good setup.

Happy Trading.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Thursday 18th December Trade Plan and Levels

Well FOMC was fun. Buying was capped at the 09-11 zone after coming back to retest the bull bear zone which proved to be key in determining the directional bias for the day.

So here we have our levels for Thursday.

We will be using 85.75-87.75 as our Bull Bear zone today. If ES can hold above here we should retest 09-11. This zone is resistance but will be tested for a third time so i would expect us to potentially break above here and test higher. Our higher zones are 20.5-22.5 and 33-35. If we do break out of balance be i would be very cautious shorting and would only do so on clearly weak internals.  We may even reach 45-47 if ES really breakouts of balance.

If ES can go down to test the bull bear zone and the break and hold below it then we could simply go back into a balance type scenario of two way trading and id expect buyers at the 65.5-67.5 zone and the 56.50-58.50.

Happy trading.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Wednesday 17th December trade plan and Levels for ES

Good day folks.

I've had a few questions from people asking about chatting privately about trading. But after some thought if you have any trading questions comment on here and I can try and answer them as best I can for everyone to see.

Here are today's levels.

We will be using 85-87.5 for today's bull bear zone. If ES can spend some time below here we should see a test of lower levels. This is also a great final target for longs if we get a set up.

Our support zones are 56.50-58.50 where we should see buyers on first test. Along with 51-53. If buyers cannot defend any of these levels on the day time frame i really could see us liquidating to 35-37 which really isn't out out reach given current volatility.

On the upside if ES can break above the bull bear and hold we have 98.75-01, and then 09-11. I would expect sellers on first test of these levels,.

Happy trading.

Monday, December 15, 2014

Tuesday 16th December trade plan and Levels for ES

Morning Traders.

Yesterday ES once again continued its value transition lower but also provided great opportunity at support zones.

So here we go today.

Todays bull bear zone is at 85.5-87.5. Above here we could see ES retest higher values where id expect to find sellers on first test. Today we also have 1997 which will give us a great idea how strong the bulls really are on the day time frame as a break of this should see us retest 08.5-10.5.

However ES did close yesterday leaving us a weak low which needs to be repaired at 59-61. Now our first zone of support is at 67.5-69.5 and we would need a good setup here for us to look long even though this was our target area a few days ago for a complete value transition. Especially in this bearish scenario. We may be better off waiting for the 59-61 or finally the 51.75-53.75 zones to start a long position.

As always have a great trading day.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Monday 15th ES trade plan and levels

A new week is ahead of us.

Here are Mondays levels.

We will be using 98 - 2000 as our bull bear zone today. A break above this and buyers could take us to the breakout of the balance from last week at 2026. However we may see responsive sellers at the 08.75-10.75 area. A good setup would be needed to short here. If buyers do take us into last weeks range expect to see sellers at 33-35 and finally 45-47.

The downside scenarios as follows. If sellers hold us below the bull bear today we will be expected to continue our value transition to 1970's. However buyers can still be active at support zones 81-82.5, 74-76 and finally 67.5 to 69.50 which should cap selling if we get down there on the day time frame.

Have a good trading day!

Friday, December 12, 2014

December 12th Trade Plan and Levels

All Levels posted from this point forward will be for the ESH5 March Contract.

So today. We have our bull bear zone at 21-23 as this is the potential break out area from the recent short term balance bulls will need to get above this area for a test of the above value.

Above the b/b zone we have resistance at 35.75 - 37.75. This could attract selling on first test  but due to the bullish scenario playing out up here we would need a good setup to short this. The next resistance we have is at 45 -47. This is basically where sellers rejected value yesterday as i would expect to see selling on first test of this zone.

Below the b/b zone we have support at 08- 06, which could be a good area to scale out of potential shorts. Then we have 97.5 - 2000. which could cap selling today. Do be aware though that if sellers can hold below the bull bear zone to day we could liquidate to the 98 area so be cautious going long above here.

If you have followed the blog this week please comment in the section below, Thanks.

Happy trading.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

December 11th ES Trade Plan and Levels

Hey everyone,
Yesterdays bearish scenario played out. We had good early rotation was our 1st support zone back into value. As said yesterday we would have needed a perfect setup down around the 34 zone to take a long give the bearish context at that point and as we saw that level failed on 2nd test. Price didnt quite reach our next zone at 19-21 which would have been an automatic long. Great job if you managed to get short into the 34 area and take a few points long off of the 1st test of 44.

So on to today....
Our Bull bear zone is at 33-35.Buyers will need to push above here to test yesterdays value at our 1st resistance zone at 45-47, where i would expect to see sellers step in on first test. Above this we have 57-59 where we have an open gap and i would expect this to gap selling if reached today.

Below out bull bear zone we have first support at 21-19. This is a key area for buyers to defend as if they dont then we could see a value transition to 1998 over the coming days. Intraday however i dont expect us to liquidate to 1998 and we could see buyers step in at any of the 10-12 or 06-04 zones.

Happy trading!

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

December 10th Trade Plan.

Hey all. Well yesterday RTH opened below two of our key zones but as stated in the plan 33-35 could cap the selling and it did just that. Took us straight back into our bull bear zone from yesterday. Congrats to anyone who got the long yesterday based on the plan.

So going into today....

We have our bull bear zone today at 58.50-60.50.  Buyers will need to break above that to gain control and see us higher on the day time frame. Above this area we have 72.50-74.50 ( not 73-74.50 as it shows on the picture) this the the first area we may see sellers step in above the B/B area. However in this bullish environment we would need to see a good setup to short here. However sellers may be able to get us back down to todays B/B area from this resistance. next up we have 80.50-82.50 which really at that point i would only be looking to cover shorts on today day time frame. The better short if the bullish scenario played out would be the next resistance at 89.50 -91.50 which would be an automatic short for me in most scenarios.

Now the other scenario which may pan out is the bearish scenario. Off the open we could test yesterdays value down at 42 - 44 and this is our first support zone. Buyers are likely to defend this for a push to todays B/B zone. After this we have 32 - 34 which was provided great support yesterday however we would need a good setup for a long here given the bearish context down there. We have a support line at 2030 which would be a good downside target. Then finally 19-21 which is a long for me in most scenarios.

Happy Trading and please leave me a comment if you are following the blog this week. Thanks and have a great day.

Monday, December 8, 2014

Market Levels and plan 12/09

Morning people. ES was certainly volatile yesterday as buyers failed to get above yesterdays bull bear area we set out in yesterdays plan and liquidated on 2nd test of our 1st support zone as stated yesterday.

So going into today....

We will be using the 58.50- 60 area to determine who is in control today.  This is where yesterdays VPOC was as although we are heavily imbalanced to the downside this is where sellers will need to defend if they are going to continue to drop the ES into support areas. If sellers can defend this area then we have the first support at 49.50 to 51.50 which is currently being tested in Globex so may not be as strong support in RTH, so we will need to see a good setup here to get long. This is a great place to get out of shorts.

Next down we have the 43.50-46 zone.Which should be a good place to get long on 1st test. Then finally 33 -35 which could cap the selling today if tested. Automatic long for me in most scenarios.

On the upside. If ES can break above the bull bear zone. My first area of resistance is 66.50 - 68.50 which i think could see sellers on 1st test. 73 - 75 is then the next area of potential upside resistance and with buyer firmly in control up here i would need a good setup to short here. A break above this should see us get to new highs and hit the above resistance zones which for me are automatic shorts on the day time frame.

Good luck and Happy trading.

The Return of The Humboldt Trade Blog and Daily Levels

Welcome Back guys and gals.

After a few months away from the blog I've decided to come and post these levels and trade plans once again. A quick reminder that this is of course for educational purposes only.

Now that that's out of the way lets look at today's /ES_F Plan.

SO! Friday finished the day balanced after failing to break below Thursdays Value at around 2070.25 and established value at higher levels. Today we have the bull bear zone at 74.25 to 76.50. Below this we could get a push down into some of the support zones and id expect to at least test that 67.5 to 65.50 zone at some point today. As this area is the long term value of this current range buyers will have to defend this to avoid a small liquidation move back to the 55.50 to 57.50 area where id expect buyers on the first test. Below this we have 52.25 to 50.25 which is a automatic buy for me in most circumstances as we have  an open gap and would be very well extended down there on the day time frame.

On the upside,if buyers are active at the first support zone or if ES break cleanly through the bull bear zone upside targets are at 85.50 and 87.50 to 89.50. With the limited amount of Econ today i don't really expect ES to trade above these levels today so may look for shorts up there.

Happy Trading.

Monday, June 16, 2014

Monday June 16th 2014 Key Levels and Plan

Morning Traders.

As we know ES broke out of the 38.50 - 54.75 balance area on Thursday and re tested the balance area that formed from the May 29th to June 4th. On Friday buyers failed to get ES above Thursdays 29.25 VPOC and so today if buyers are to take back control we are going to need to see them push above the 29.25 area.

The LVN at 32.75 will then be the next area that Sellers will need to defend if we are to continue selling off. However if buyers can push through the 32.75 LVN then id expect us to retest the bottom of the balance at  38.50 where id expect to see sellers step in on first test.

We then have NVPOC @ 43.25 and 47.00 which if we test them today id expect to see sellers step in on first test.

However if sellers continue to sell and defend the 29.25 level then we could see selling continue down to 1919, where buyers would need to step in to avoid a further liquidation down to the NVPOC @ 1912.25 where id expect buyers to step in on first test.

Fridays profile left us with a poor high that would need to be repaired at 31.75 so id like to see us auction higher off the open to repair this and then see if we can get to the 32.75 LVN.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

So far on the day time frame we have failed to break below that 38.25 level we spoke about pre market which means that we will likely get rotation up towards todays VPOC @ 43.50. A break above this would see us head toward 48.00 and then back up to new highs at 50.75.  Weekly Value is at 46.75 and buyers will need to push through this to commence its rise to new highs.

The fact that we didnt break the 38.25 level tell me that buyers are still in control at this time. The market is currently balanced now.

As mentioned pre market we needed to see the 38.25 level tested for the 3 day RTH profile to balance out.

06/11/2014 Globex review and RTH session Trade Ideas

The globex session saw us trend downwards, narrowly missing the 52 target we had yesterday by 1 tick. Today's session could go one of two ways for me. Firstly to break out and liquidate even further we need to the 38.25 vpoc from Thursday and the bottom of this upper balance we have seen for the past 3 rth sessions. IF we break the 38.25 area we may see continuation to the 31.75 level which will balance last nights globex session downtrend. However if buyers can keep price above the 38.25 area we may then be in for a slow grind back into the 3 day range that we have been in and maybe test the highs once again.

The 3 day balance profile also shows us an imbalance to the downside needed to get to 38.25 for this to be balanced. Happy Trading. 

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Close review and Globex Plan. 06/10/2014

As we close out the day we have hit yesterday vpoc at 50.00 and our final target of 52.00/52.25 looks to be in sight.  Its now 5 minutes until the close so hopefully we can get to this target before then. If not then this will be our globex target. During globex i expect to see some chop around the 50.00 area with my bias on the scalp shorts from 52.00/52.25. Happy trading.

06/10/2014 ES Trading.

Today's profile has been imbalanced to the upside throughout the session, with a target of 52.00. Vpoc at 47.75. We have potential resistance @ yesterdays 50.00 vpoc and this could be a good scale for any longs still left in the market with the 52.00 as a final scale target for anyone holding into the last hour/ Globex session. My end of day Globex session review will come tonight for you guys.  Happy Trading.

Welcome to Humboldt Trade Blog

Welcome all to the new Humboldt Trade Blog. I will be posting ES Futures Trade Ideas and Targets using a market profile technique that i have implicated and refined over the years. Today's end of day review will be up shortly.